"The Signal and the Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail but Some Don't" is written by Nate Silver and published by Penguin Press.
Nate Silver is known for his system for predicting baseball performance, which he then applied to predict the 2008 U.S. Presidential election. He is also the founder of The New York Times political blog FiveThirtyEight.com
This book aims to help readers improve their own predicting ability by understanding probability and uncertainty. Silver shares his own insights, and interviews expert predictors in the areas of business, politics and sports. He also looks at predictions gone wrong, and analyzes what made them flawed from the start.
In the book, Silver outlines the differences between a signal readers can use for predicting and noisy data that causes most predictions to fail.
"The Signal and the Noise" is aimed at helping readers develop intuition for the kinds of predictions that are possible, identify those that are not so possible, assess where they may go wrong in making predictions, and learn how to avoid some common pitfalls.
Twitter ID: @fivethirtyeight
